Just eight weeks ago when the Villa attacker found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, appearing bewildered while his coach admonished him over not reading a pass in behind. During that period, as the club went six without a win, doubts remained whether his performances were a sign or the source of Villa's wider issues.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
This weekend, in contrast, the manager's outburst proved to be far more favourable. As the in-form star drilled in his second strike to restore Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician tore off his winter coat, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club marched on to a 10th successive win and despite not winning their opening six matches, are somehow just three points off pace-setters Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Legitimate Challengers?
It remains an exceptionally difficult question to resolve. History, a general sense of this institution, suggests not. Furthermore, they've rarely been completely commanding this season, while the wins have stacked up.
As per Opta, on just two occasions have Villa posted an xG significantly higher than the opposition. For a team which has just won 10 in a row, Villa seem curiously susceptible – but right now the margins are going in their favour.
The Rogers Recipe
The prevailing tactic seems to be to engage in a shootout with rivals and then rely on Rogers to rescue them with some precise efforts. It happened away to Leeds, it transpired in London, and once more against the Red Devils.
The initial strike stemmed from an exquisite effort, bent right inside the post from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal was essentially a somewhat messier replica of goal number one as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Is It Sustainable?
Logic says not. In the recent win, Manchester United had more efforts and more direct attempts. They have secured their last eight victories by the narrowest of margins. They’ve conceded in all except one of those games.
Regression to the mean may well be the greatest opponent they will encounter over the coming weeks. Their key man, almost certainly, will not continue to blasting his shots into the top corner indefinitely.
A Case for Belief
Maybe there exists a different scenario whereby, instead of luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures could still find their top level.
- The centre-forward might resume finding the net regularly.
- The winger could transform into the force he was at Borussia Dortmund.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are due to return from injury, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable defence.
Perhaps there is in that the potential for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.
Enjoying the Ride
However, nobody expected this. Few believed Villa would sit in a Champions League place in December. And certainly earlier this season, no one envisioned the young forward as the year closed would be at the forefront of a title charge while looking like a vital England player.
This remarkable period must be cherished precisely because it feels so unlikely. When the match-winner positioned himself before the North End when the game ended orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. These spells are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.
